This is about a fictional representation of a real world event NOTE: Only available in the "A House Divided" version of PDM (also known as APD)
- 1 History
- 2 The Meiji Restoration in APD and Vanilla
- 3 The Path to the Boshin War
- 4 The Boshin War Begins
- 5 The Peaceful Route for the Shogun
Japan begins the Victorian era in a feudal system, with the Tokugawa shogun ruling over various daimyo (this was known as the Han system) and the Emperor much-reduced in power. Japan itself was closed off to the outside world, implementing the Sakoku policy which kept it relatively backwards and secluded. As the shogun began to open up to the outside world, the Sonno Joi movement called for this to be reversed... this, combined with the defeat of the shogun by Commodore Perry's expedition-- which exposed the shogun's weakness-- led the Emperor to issue an order for foreign barbarians to be expelled from Japan. With the death of the childless Shogun Iesada, the rift between the Tokugawa and the tozama daimyo grew worse. Finally, the southern Satsuma daimyo rose up to overthrow the shogun and restore the Emperor to power in the Boshin War... which ended with the shogun's defeat and the ascension of Emperor Meiji-- who moved his capital from Kyoto to Edo (renamed to Tokyo) and ultimately abolished the Han system in his efforts to rapidly modernize the nation.
The Meiji Restoration in APD and Vanilla
There's very little in the way of events for Japan in Vanilla Victoria 2. Prior to the release of the "A House Divided" expansion pack, the Meiji Restoration was simply the name of the decision used to make Japan a civilized country-- which makes sense, considering Meiji modernized Japan so quickly. It's as good a benchmark as any to point at for Japan's civilising point. With the expansion pack, the Meiji Restoration is a decision that accelerates Japan's westernization and is useable whenever Japan is sphered (and can be used earlier by a player, though not without resulting militancy). In neither case is there really any representation of Japan's enforced seclusion (outside of the country selecting the "Uncivilized Isolation" modifier when the event pops up, though they have as much chance of that as any other nation) or the conflict caused by efforts to civilize.
APD splits Japan up at the beginning of the game: the Tokugawa are represented by Shogunate Japan-- and there are six sub-states for the daimyos: three tozama daimyo (Satsuma, Choshu and Tosa) and three fudai daimyo (Kaga, Yonezawa and Sendai). The Shogunate ultimately has two paths before it: one is to defeat the rebel daimyos when/if the Boshin War occurs and the other is to civilize and reform out of Absolute Monarchy in order to become "Imperial Japan". In either case the daimyos will ultimately be annexed. It is possible for the daimyos to win the Boshin War, however, in which case the country will immediately turn into Imperial Japan.
The Path to the Boshin War
You'll notice that Shogunate Japan and the daimyo states start off as very isolated-- specifically they have the "isolated" diplomatic reform for uncivs... which means they are cut off from the outside world and purposefully refuse to interact with it. They receive no DP's and thus cannot declare war, propose peace or raise/lower relations with other nations. That's intentional, and reflects the Sakoku policy. The three tozama daimyo (Choshu, Tosa and Satsuma) are slightly more open-- they get the "Sayings of the Dutch" country modifier (+5% RP) and do not get the "Sakoku" country modifier (-10% RP, -10% war exhaustion) that Shogunate Japan and the fudai daimyos (Kaga, Sendai and Yonezawa) do. So the tozama daimyo will tend to modernize faster.
The first hurdle that Japan will encounter is the Sonno Joi event chain-- essentially a movement within Japan to oppose westernization and expel foreigners. It will begin for the Shogunate or any daimyo as soon as they switch to the "interactive" diplomatic reform. The "Sakoku" modifier (if it's possessed) will be removed... but a "Rebellion Against Foreigners" event can fire in every province which increases reactionary ideology and militancy. This event at first fires only in provinces which receive one of the unciv western presence modifiers... but if Shogunate Japan itself switches to the "interactive" reform it will get the "Order to Expel the Barbarians" event sometime after 1855. This is the Emperor making a decree to support the Sonno Joi movement, which speeds up the "Rebellion Against Foreigners" event and makes it possible for that event to fire in any province.
It would appear at first glance that the easy thing for Shogunate Japan to do would be to simply not take the "interactive" diplomatic reform. This would be true if it weren't for the "Commodore Perry's Expedition" event chain. Essentially, the USA will eventually demand that Japan open its ports to outsiders... if Shogunate Japan caves, it will immediately get the "interactive" reform as well as the "Western Influences" country modifier. If they refuse, there is a 50% chance that the USA will go to war with Shogunate Japan to add it into their sphere.
The USA does not have to land on Japan to win that war, necessarily. If Shogunate Japan is blockaded (50% blockade) and its war exhaustion gets high enough, the USA can enact the Kanagawa Treaty decision which will force Shogunate Japan to surrender. A player has the option to refuse the treaty, but that will give them even more war exhaustion.
Whether it happens through natural reform or is imposed by the USA, a Shogunate Japan that opens up to outsiders is one of the possible requirements that can cause the Boshin War.
Opposition to the Bakufu
As if it weren't enough that the Emperor expects the Shogun to maintain Japan's isolation, the daimyo also expect the Shogun to be strong-- and will lose confidence in him if he shows weakness against the outside world. The "Opposition to the Bakufu" event will fire for Shogunate Japan if it either caved or surrendered to Commodore Perry, if it failed to enforce a wargoal in any war (or had a wargoal enforced upon it) or has any core province owned by a non-Japanese nation.
If the event fires, the Shogun will need to seek allies among the daimyos-- they must either go to the tozama (Satsuma, Tosa and Choshu) or the fudai (Kaga, Sendai and Yonezawa). The ones they don't go to will get the "angered by the bakufu" flag, which will affect who they support when and if the Boshin War begins.
The Death of Iesada
Historically, Tokugawa Iesada died in 1858 and caused the daimyos to clash over his successor-- the progressive tozama daimyo on one side and the traditional fudai daimyo on the other. Here, sometime after 1858 the "Death of Iesada" event will fire... and a choice must be made between supporting the tozama and appointing Tokugawa Yoshinobu as Shogun or supporting the fudai and appointing Tokugawa Iemochi as Shogun.
This is a statement of support for either the tozama or the fudai-- picking one over the other will help determine whether they support the Emperor or the Shogun once the Boshin War begins.
Once the "Death of Iesada" event has fired, the Ansei Purge decision becomes available to Shogunate Japan. This may be used when average militancy raises to 3 or higher. The immediate effect of this decision is to lower militancy by 3 (in Shogunate Japan as well as all of the daimyo states). It also adds the "Ansei Purge" country modifier to all of them howvever, which will slowly increase consciousness and militancy.
Having the "Ansei Purge" modifier means that the "Sakuradaman Incident" event may now fire for Shogunate Japan. This occurs if average militancy rises back above 2, if it rises above 4 in any daimyo or if it's after 1862. Based on the assassination of Ii Naosuke, a choice must be made whether to make a compromise with the Emperor. A compromise removes the "Ansei Purge" modifier from Shogunate Japan and all daimyos and instead adds the "Kobu Gattai" modifier (lowering consciousness and militancy, the opposite of the Ansei Purge). The Kobu Gattai modifier prevents the Boshin War from beginning, but is removed once the "Death of Emperor Komei" event fires. Refusing to compromise means the modifers remain unchanged.
The Death of Emperor Komei
The last part of the lead-up to the Boshin War is the death of Emperor Komei, which allows Meiji to ascend to the Imperial throne. This happens sometime after 1860 and requires Shogunate Japan to either have had the "Sakuradaman Incident" event or the "Order to Expel Barbarians" event. So if Shogunate Japan never acquired the "interactive" diplomatic reform and never started the Ansei Purge than this event will never fire... and the Boshin War will never occur.
The Boshin War Begins
Ultimately the Boshin War is begun by one of the daimyo states selecting the "Overthrow the Bakufu" decision. This means they have thrown in their support for Emperor Meiji (currently ruling from Kyoto) and declared their support for restoring him to the rule of all Japan. The decision has the following requirements:
- Is a daimyo state (Choshu, Satsuma, Tosa, Kaga, Sendai or Yonezawa)
- Shogunate Japan owns Kyoto (province #1657)
- The "Death of Emperor Komei" event has fired
- The "Kobu Gattai" modifier is not possessed
- The country has either acquired the "Supports Imperial Edict" flag (acquired once the "Order to Expel Barbarians" event fires for Shogunate Japan) or the "Angered by the Bakufu" flag (acquired once the "Opposition to the Bakufu" event fires) or is a player.
If one of the daimyo states is a player, then the AI daimyo states will never fire this decision-- only the player can. Once that happens, the Kyoto state is seceded to the daimyo and it is freed from substate status. It acquires the "Emergency Draft" modifier and sends the "Meiji Rebellion" event to Shogunate Japan and all other daimyos.
For any daimyo that receives the "Meiji Rebellion" event, they must decide whether to support the Emperor or the Shogun. Supporting the Emperor is more likely if the Shogun did not seek them as allies when/if the "Opposition to the Bakufu event fired, if their candidate was not supported after the "Death of Iesada" event, if they supported the Imperial edict after the "Order to Expel Barbarians" event or if they currently have the "Ansei Purge" modifier. The tozama daimyo are also naturally more inclined to support the Emperor, while the fudai daimyo are more inclined to support the Shogun... though ultimately their decision will vary.
Supporting the Emperor means the daimyo will enact an alliance with whoever fired the "Overthrow the Bakufu" decision as well as become their vassal. Supporting the Shogun means abandoning any alliance with the rebelling daimyos and enforcing an alliance with the Shogun. The Shogun will then receive an event that begins the Boshin War in earnest.
Winning the War as the Emperor
The Shogun will surrender to the Emperor if:
- Edo (province #1649) is not under Shogunate Japan's (or rebel) control for a full 90 days.
- Kyoto (province #1657) is not controlled by Shogunate Japan or an allied daimyo.
- War exhaustion is over 20.
Alternatively, if the Imperial faction manages a quick ending and simply owns Edo and Kyoto both, that will also fire the surrender event. In that case, whichever daimyo fired the "Overthrow the Bakufu" decision will inherit all of Shogunate Japan and will tag-switch to Japan (the JAP tag). The capital will be moved to Edo and all existing daimyo will receive the "Meiji Restoration" event which demands their annexation. Some daimyo may resist, but even if they do they will have JAP cores on all their provinces and will likely be invaded before long.
Winning the War as the Shogun
The Emperor will surrender to the Shogun if:
- the Imperial faction leader's capital is not under their control (or rebel control) for a full 90 days
- Kyoto (province #1657) is also not under their control (or rebel control) for a full 90 days.
Alternatively, if Shogunate Japan manages a quick ending by retaking ownership of Kyoto, that will also fire the Imperial surrender event. If that happens, the Imperial faction leader is automatically annexed by Shogunate Japan, and all daimyo states will receive the "Tokugawa Victory" event which demands their annexation. Some daimyo may resist, but even if they do they will have Shogunate cores upon all their territory.
The Peaceful Route for the Shogun
It is possible for the Boshin War to never begin. If Shogunate Japan never passes the "interactive" diplomatic reform (or caves to the USA in the Commodore Perry event chain) and never fires the Ansei Purge decision and also never loses a war, then the "Overthrow the Bakufu" event cannot be taken by a daimyo. The question is-- what happens then?
There are two routes available:
1) Become Japan: If Shogunate Japan becomes civilized and is not an absolute monarchy it may fire the "Bunmei Kaka" decision. This will lower militancy by -6 and tag-switch the country to Japan (the JAP tag). All existing daimyos will receive a unification event which will either annex them or see them released (with JAP cores on all their territory).
2) Unite the Daimyos: If Shogunate Japan remains an absolute monarchy but civilizes and becomes a greater power, with all existing daimyos in its sphere, then it can fire the "Unite the Daimyos" decision which lowers militancy by -6 and sends a unification event to all existing daimyos which will either annex them or see them released (with TKG cores on all their territory).